Tuesday, December 4, 2007
Super Santana? Try Again
Ever since their first round lost to the Cleveland Indians in the 2007 Divisional Series, the The New York Yankees have experienced various changes. First, the Joe Torre era is officially over: the pride of Brooklyn has packed his bags for Tinseltown, and the firm-handed Joe Girardi has taken over the reigns. Hank and Hal Steinbrenner (Baseball and Business, Dumb and Dumber, Hankalstein, ive heard them all) have now replaced their father as dictators of the organization. We lost the best player in baseball because he wanted too much money ($350M), only to end up signing A-Rod to a contract that could end up costing the Yankees $314M. The organization came close to losing three of its cornerstones, Andy, Jorge, and Mo, but our willingness to dole out money has kept them back in pinstripes.


At this point in the offseason, I'd give our team a B+. We've kept all of our major free agents, and although we lost a Hall of Fame coach, we hired a manager that made the Florida Marlins respectable. Although we did all this through throwing money at people who probably didnt deserve it all, the Yankees have the resources, so why not use them to our advantage.

However, every Yankee fan seems to have their eyes set on a bigger prize: Johan Santana



Not me.

Now don't get me wrong. Johan Santana has been the best pitcher in baseball for the past four years, and Jayson Stark does a masterful job of explaining just how dominant Santana has been over on ESPN.

As of right now, if the Minnesota Twins were to accept the Yankees proposal, here's what both sides would be getting

New York Yankees: Johan Santana (Under the assumption that he'd be signed to a 7/$130M deal)
Minnesota Twins: Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, Player to be Named Later (A good prospect, but not top 5)

I have two issues with this current proposal:

First, its the inclusion of Phil Hughes. Most New York Yankees fans are notorious for their short memory spans, and "What have you done for me lately" mentalities. Ever since Joba Chamberlain's debut on August 7 (as a reliever mind you), the Yankees have proclaimed him as the savior of the franchise, the guy who could match up to a Josh Beckett, CC Sabathia or a Jake Peavy. Everyone forgets that on May 1, Phil Hughes went 6 1/3 innings of no-hitting the Texas Rangers in Arlington (a notorious hitters park). Given, he went down with a hamstring injury and ultimately derailed his season. First, Phil Hughes is not injury prone: Wang, Matsui, and Mussina were all ailed by that same injury, and thats why our conditioning coach was fired. In addition, at this point last year, Phil Hughes was considered THE BEST pitching prospect IN ALL OF BASEBALL according to Baseball America. And yes, I'll admit it, I love the guy. He has become the poster boy of the Yankees new regime** (headed by Brian Cashman) in which the Bronx Bombers would use their money to develop big time pitchers, not overpay aged veteran bats.

Now why wouldnt I give up Phil Hughes? First, its cost effective. Over the next six years, he will not earn more than $4M at any given point. Over that same period of time, regardless of what team Johan ends up with, he will presumably command over $100M. Before I continue, I will acknowledge the argument that the road of a young stud pitcher is arduous, and anything could happen. Johan is already established, having won 2 Cy Youngs, and arguably deserving of a third. Next, look at the next five years for the Yankees rotation: If we were to keep Hughes, these are the possible pitcher who could make up the 2012 Yankees Pitching Rotation: Joba Chamberlain (27), Phil Hughes (27), Chien-Meng Wang (31), Ian Kennedy (28), Alan Horne (28), Andrew Brackman (28), Dellin Betances (25)... A later blog will analyze each major prospect's potential, but the bottom line is that if the Yankees keep Phil Hughes, they have the potential to mirror the 1990's Braves.

Second, Johan Santana is too much of a risk to give a 7 year, $130M contract to. For that matter, its too risky for just about any pitcher. I know that Santana is the best one out there, but pitchers constantly endure physical stress, and theres no certainty to what could happen from now until 2014. Theres one thing thats bothered me this season that very few people have brought up. Johan Santana had an awful second half to the 2007 season. Maybe he gave up on his team (questionable character), or maybe he just lost his stuff. To be honest, I'd rather have a pitcher have an off year than an off half. If I were at the helm of the Yankees, I just wouldnt feel comfortable signing off on that extension. No if's, and's, or but's.

Bottom Line: If the Yankees end up trading for Johan Santana, I wont be crying in the corner. But I will have lost a certain level of respect for the organization, and I will cringe every moment that I see Phil Hughes flourish in the isolation of Minnesota.

UPDATE: As of 12:20AM, there are conflicting reports as to the outcome of the Yankees and Twins meeting late Monday night. More to follow soon

** This regime will be referenced often. It started on May 22, 2005, when Robinson Cano replaced Tony Womack (old and decrepit), and Chien-Meng Wang replaced Kevin Brown (older, more decrepit, and overpaid). It marked the beginning of the Yankees resurgent Farm System